2025 has been a wild ride, am I right? While there are certainly more vulnerable demographics in the crosshairs of President Trump’s temper tantrums – excuse me, policy decisions, many alcohol suppliers have been feeling like pawns this week.

The industry took a sigh of relief when duties on goods imported from Mexico and Canada received a one-month reprieve on Monday following border security deals brokered by each country. Are the tariffs actually real threats or just negotiating tools and political theatre? It’s looking more like the latter.

The exception is Trump’s 10% tariffs on imports from China, which went into effect on Tuesday, pushing Beijing to retaliate. Trump has said the European Union is next in line, putting Kentucky on edge as tariffs on American Whiskeys at 50% are already slated to return April 1 if there is no agreement on steel and aluminum or the EU does not extend the suspension of its tariff.

Whether imposed or not, being caught in a trade war isn’t making things more chill for the industry.

“Together with inflation, market access challenges, neoprohibitionist policies and the rampant glorification of heavily biased science, our industry faces a grim future without further action,” said Margie A.S Lehrman, CEO of the American Craft Spirits Association.

Affected businesses face the question of passing on the costs to consumers and possibly limiting sales volumes, while larger companies who might be able to absorb the costs could attempt to grab some of that volume.

Now, businesses will likely again visit questions they asked themselves late last year, whether or not to “beat” the tariffs and bring excess inventory into the U.S., said John Wrenn, COO of importer and distributor MHW. But while dashing to avoid tariffs may result in paying less tax and duty on import, it could cost a business more total dollars, he said, for example, higher inventory carrying costs than would have otherwise been required.

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer, but Adriana McKinnon, director of logistics at Park Street, appeared in a video published Monday offering a few suggestions including diversifying sourcing, storing goods in U.S. Free Trade Zones, as well as locking in favorable rates or renegotiating contracts with producers.

But in the end, the real cost could be the time and energy spent preparing for “the dumbest trade war in history,” rather than focusing on building more value for your business.